Market Shape
Sportsbooks show the betting market. Polymarket shows the belief market.
Kam separates sportsbook odds from prediction-market prices, then explains where the markets agree, disagree, or need more verification.
What each market tells you
Sportsbook contextSpreads, totals, moneylines, book movement, consensus, and freshness.
Prediction-market contextPolymarket game markets, futures, probabilities, liquidity, volume, and disagreement.
Market ShapeProbability gaps, stale signals, thin liquidity, source disagreement, and next checks.
Important caveat
Kam should never treat Polymarket as sportsbook odds or claim prediction-market prices are always sharper. It explains the gap and tells you what to verify.